The Churning has Begun

"The Churning has Begun

More aggressive recruiting of executives has begun. From a number of sources, we have indications of significant movement-among recruiters, among executives accepting new positions, and among relocation companies engaged to manage moves. This activity is the first step in the transformation back to a lively economy, and it is quietly beginning.

The next targets of recruiters will be middle managers with specific talents. Depending on their needs, savvy companies preparing for growth will seek experienced marketers, sales professionals, manufacturing managers, logistics specialists, and others, depending on the nature of their business.

Expect an unprecedented churning in the American labor marketplace, beginning in the third quarter of 2002. As the economy heats up, refreshing opportunities and aggressive recruiting will challenge loyalties. Wise employers will engage in strategies now to build positive relationships with their employees. Employers will invest in training, development, and coaching efforts to strengthen the bonds with valued employees.

Economically, we see slow growth starting in first quarter 2002, with more apparent signals surfacing in the second quarter. Economic futurists anticipate 4-5% growth rate by fourth quarter. As the country gets back on track, latent American optimism will resurface with the strong economic projections laid out at the start of the decade. We'll move back into a boom mentality, causing severe difficulties, as employers' demands for workers cannot be met. The country is currently approximately five million workers short, a figure exacerbated by the need for competencies in short supply.

Complicating this intricate web of interacting trends and factors is an increasing tendency for workers, particularly young people, to take more control of their own careers. Demands for life balance, telework, and personalized compensation and benefits will drive many employers to undertake major changes in the way they do business. American trends are followed by similar trends elsewhere. Lag time may be shorter than in the past.

-From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or www.herman.net."

<Note from JobFairy.com: Very prescient - and this was written well before 9/11! I think they're off only by about a quarter. Call us Fairies cynical, but 9/11 is not so much a disaster as an excuse, from a corporate standpoint. The Enron, WorldCom, and Andersen meltdowns are worse than any terrorist attack in terms of impact on the economy. Business was already in a downturn for a year - long before Al Qaeda operatives crashed into the WTC and the Pentagon. Companies are just using this as a pretext for slashing jobs and reducing benefits. The real reason is that during the dot-bomb hype, they overextended financially and probably inflated their earnings. Now it's crunch time and they're up against the wall. Why blame inept management and greed when you can have complete and plausible deniability by using the events of 9/11 to your own advantage?>