5.23.2004

We're not off the rollercoaster yet...

"Hiring trends

By Amy Schurr
Network World IT Leadership Newsletter

At long last, the job market is beginning to open up. That's among the encouraging results of DBM's Workforce Predictions Survey for 2004. DBM, a human resources consulting firm, surveyed HR professionals in late 2003 and early 2004 to learn about the workforce trends they foresee this year. Approximately 51% of respondents plan to "moderately to greatly" boost hiring activity in 2004, a 35% increase from last year's survey. However, job seekers can expect this hiring process to be slow and steady. Companies are still cautious and can afford to be choosy about candidates. As such, the average job search remains in the four- to six-month range, according to the results. "It's not uncommon for a job seeker to return six or seven times for interviews before a hiring decision is made - a trend that is not likely to change in the first half of 2004," DBM President Tom Silveri says. He advises job seekers to aggressively follow up with leads this quarter. And while the worst of the layoffs are probably over, companies still plan organizational changes for 2004, as reported by 52% of respondents. DBM points out that although a company may be experiencing layoffs, it may need to hire newly created positions to fit within the new structure. Similarly, previous employers might need to rehire their alumni. The advice? Keep your professional network open with co-workers and former colleagues. Finally, 67% of the HR pros surveyed expect their firms to invest in leadership development programs this year. Such moves will help companies retain staff as the economy improves."

<Note from JobFairy.com: Four to six months is about right. For Fairies, it's still two to three months, and that's bad, for us. We usually have the next gig before the old one's done; if we get a break at all it's a month or less. So this is still pretty brutal. Yes, the multiple interviews thing is something most of us Fairies have experienced too. Once place interviewed Shocking Pink four times and then passed. We still wouldn't advise being aggressive about following up on leads. If they want you, they'll move heaven and earth to get you. If you have to pursue them, you won't get the most money possible for the work, nor the respect. As to rehiring alumni - none of us Fairies have ever heard of a company doing that. Companies are enjoying record profits, and they can afford to keep anyone they really want to keep. If companies want to retain staff, they should remember that employees join a company but leave a boss. They may say it's for more money, and that may be true, but they're always leaving a less-than-satisfying boss. I know people who have given up tremendous opportunities which would have meant more money in order to stay with a good boss. Their spouses wanted to kill them, but they were happy on the job - so it's all a matter of having to live with the choices you make.>

Monster Employment Index Shows Jump in Online Job Demand In April

"Regional demand for workers increased across nearly every part of the United States, according to the Index. The Mountain region (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico) posted the greatest rise from March to April, driven largely by Arizona. With respect to individual states, Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, Rhode Island and Louisiana showed significant increases in demand over the past month. As in March, California continued to lead the nation with the largest number of job opportunities last month.

"During April, the Monster Employment Index measured continued strong growth in online job demand across virtually every category that the Index evaluates - from industries looking for workers to professional and hourly occupational categories to geographic regions where employment opportunities exist," said Jeff Taylor, Founder and Chief Monster. "As the migration of help wanted advertising continues to move from print to online, the Monster Employment Index measures the pulse of online job recruitment activity and the related employment opportunities. We are encouraged to see that the Index is tracking with broader labor market indicators, which show a steady improvement in overall job availability nationwide since the beginning of the year, and we expect that this tool will continue to gain increasing utility for U.S. labor market watchers.""

<Note from JobFairy.com: This excerpt is from Yahoo!'s analysis of the Monster.com employment index figures. We want to issue a warning here - they're not all that accurate. We're not talking government gathered data here. It's how well *their* (Monster's) employment ad selling efforts are going. They show that the Mountain region did well; I beg to differ. Every recruiter I've chatted with told me how terrible April was and how they are desperately hoping May will be better and that the months after that will improve even further. But they are cautious. If you go further into Monster's site and dig through the figures for this region, it shows that it hasn't been all that bad for months. Again, from those of us on the front lines, our perception differs considerably. It's certainly less brutal than it's been in months, but not easy by any measure of effort you care to go by. Plus, the major layoffs HAVE NOT STOPPED. Qwest is planning to outsource all their IT, and MCI's laying off 7,500. This is going to have an impact; we're not out of the woods yet so long as this kind of thing continues. If things are marginally better than before, yes, that means they're TECHNICALLY better, but not ENOUGH better.>

Monster.com Employment Index; Real-time Monthly Analysis of Online Job Recruitment

"Unemployment Rate Drops Amid Strong Payroll Gains

By Dow Jones Newswires
From The Wall Street Journal Online
U.S.  payrolls grew at a rapid pace for a second month in a row, driving the unemployment rate lower and suggesting that the "jobless recovery" has finally bloomed into a real recovery. Nonfarm business payrolls grew by a net 288,000 jobs in April, raising the total to 1.1 million over the last eight months, the Labor Department said Friday.  The government also reported 66,000 more jobs were created during March and February than initially estimated.  The unemployment rate, meanwhile, dropped a tenth of a percentage point to 5.6% in April. Economists had expected payrolls to grow by only 150,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to remain stagnant, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC. Many economists now expect the economy to generate about 200,000 jobs a month for the remainder of the year -- an expectation that, if realized, would go a long way toward fulfilling the White House's much-derided prediction of a 2.6 million increase in jobs this year. The persistent scarcity of jobs since the recession officially ended in November 2001 had been a key source of worry for U.S.  economic policy makers, who worried that it could derail economic growth by frightening consumers into curbing expenditures.  It also become a liability for President George W.  Bush in his re-election campaign -- Democratic leaders have regularly noted that Mr.  Bush is the first president since Herbert Hoover to have presided over a net loss of jobs. During the first two-and-a-half years of Mr.  Bush's term, the economy shed 2.7 million jobs.  Since the summer of 2003, when the country began to see sizzling economic growth, about 40% of those losses have been reversed. Over the last month, moreover, virtually all labor-market indicators have suggested the job-market recovery has taken root.  Last week, for example, the number of workers filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits dropped to 315,000 -- the lowest level since the week before the 2000 presidential election. Federal Reserve policy makers, however, have remained cautious about the outlook, saying only that hiring "appears" to have improved.  They opted this week to hold the key federal-funds rate at a 46-year low of 1% and said that when they do begin raising the rate, the increases will be "measured." Most economists nevertheless expect the central bank to start raising the rate in August, a view that was bolstered by this April employment report. The Labor Department said job growth in April was "widespread for the second consecutive month." The service-producing industry added 246,000 jobs.  The professional and business-services industry added 123,000 jobs; within that category, 35,000 of the job gains were temporary-help positions.  Temporary-help jobs have grown by 261,000 over the last year. The manufacturing industry added 21,000 jobs, marking the biggest increase in nearly four years.  The construction industry added 18,000 jobs, down from 65,000 in March.  The leisure and hospitality industry added 36,000, while government jobs increased by 8,000. The jobs growth coincided with a small increase in average hourly earnings, which rose five cents, or 0.3%, to $15.59 in March.  The average work week held steady at 33 hours and 42 minutes."

<Note from JobFairy.com: I highly doubt it is 40% of those jobs recovered. These jobs aren't high paying, layoffs are still rampant, and outsourcing is set to increase by a factor of four this year. So the picture is improving, but companies are doing whatever they can to preserve those record profits. This means doing whatever they can to foster productivity and lower costs. These efforts will invariably come at the expense of the average worker.>